Unresolved issues in Southern Thailand get global focus

After all these years, leaders in Bangkok still need to solve the problems in the restive south.

Thai deputy premier Suthep Thaugsuban’s visit to the southern provinces yesterday may invigorate attempts to end the deadly violence there.

Then again, it may not. At least two previous official visits to the south, led no less by a deputy premier, produced no policy solutions.

The situation is alarming again after last Monday’s murder of worshippers at Narathiwat’s Al-Furqan mosque. It had been alarming since 2004, but the lack of resolve from successive governments has raised the death toll to 3,700.

For the latest government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, the solution for Narathiwat, Pattani and Yala combines a controversial emergency rule, a draconian Internal Security Act, pouring more soldiers into the provinces, several committees to oversee the situation, and development plans that take years to mature.

And then there are overseas trips to assure concerned countries. Abhisit was in South Korea just prior to his visit to Malaysia, before going to Cambodia on Friday and then to China soon after that.

There is an eerie feeling that there must be more effective ways to quell the violent spasms of Thailand’s “deep south.”

With smoother coordination, more political will and better imagination, the government could do a better job at home without perhaps so many trips abroad.

Lack of coordination

Two days ago the National Institute of Development Administration gave the government a “B” for tackling economic problems, reportedly because results notwithstanding, there was “no systematic planning or close coordination” between ministries. Expect a lower grade for tackling security problems.

Abhisit had made a much-publicised visit to Yala in January, only to have a 2kg bomb as an attempt on his life steal the headlines. That trip soon became of largely symbolic significance.

As journalists invited to tour the provinces at the time, we found the heavy troop presence more disconcerting than reassuring. We explained to officials, apparently to little effect, that the clear show of security did not amount to the reality of security.

The proof of the perception is sadly in the reality, as sporadic but deadly violence continues to spiral upwards. As Abhisit arrived in Malaysia on Monday, masked gunmen shot at 50 worshippers in Al-Furqan mosque, killing 11 and wounding 12.

These attacks appear to have little or no clear purpose, aimed as they are against Muslims and Buddhists alike, typically with no demands or claims of responsibility. They seem to be attempts to internationalise the turmoil, coinciding with Abhisit’s overseas trips and the concern shown by the Organisation of the Islamic Conference.

They also sow confusion and hatred, besides forcing the authorities on the defensive. The military was accused of the Al-Furqan attack almost as soon as it happened despite the lack of evidence, deepening long-held suspicions between the mainly ethnic Malay and Muslim local population and the largely Buddhist Thai army.

Last Sunday, a Narathiwat MP from Abhisit’s Democrat Party doubted that Muslim insurgents were behind many of the bombing and shooting incidents. He said the recent attacks on innocents seemed inexplicable, and were probably designed to send a message to the government.

If so, the perpetrators have succeeded. They have captured the attention of several countries, magnifying the alarm of seeing heads of government scurrying for safety at Pattaya’s aborted East Asian summit in April caused by violent demonstrators.

Three days ago, three southern lawmakers warned the government to take swift and effective action against the violence before it gets out of hand and goes international. They know the situation better than Bangkok bureaucrats and functionaries, so they recommend a more hands-on approach by political leaders on the ground.

Problems escalate

The previous governments of Thaksin Shinawatra and Gen Surayud Chulanont lacked the necessary responsiveness. Thaksin’s years saw problems escalate by alienating local populations and aggravating their grievances.

When Chaturon as deputy premier tasked to inspect the southern situation reported back and confirmed earlier reports of bullying and intimidation by corrupt and abusive local authorities, little was done other than Bangkok sending in more troops to lock the population down.

The Abhisit government is supposed to make a meaningful difference. But the long-term effects of development plans aside, it seems to combine Surayud’s slow responses with Thaksin’s reliance on a heavy military presence.

The southern provinces are reputedly pro-Democrat, but the party has failed to maximise its support there. Admittedly, much of this support comes by default from Thaksin’s profound unpopularity in the region.

When the party could have massaged the political capital from Thaksin’s ill will, it let things slide. It must be increasingly clear to the Democrats that there are limits to how much they can blame Thaksin for.

Between one group of Bangkok elites and another, it may be difficult to focus on the plight of poor southerners to resolve their problems seriously.

This is the overriding challenge for the party in power, because it had not been voted into office but senses the need for an election on the way.

Its ambitious programmes will take years to see results, so it will need a fresh mandate for them to come to fruition.

But if Abhisit’s party cannot win over people in the south, how can it win over others in Thaksin’s strongholds in the north?

- THE STAR