The jobs that will be most at risk in tough year
How will the worst global recession now hovering over Australia – and possibly Malaysia – affect the ordinary workers in both countries?
Researchers and labour market analysts examining this issue, which is the biggest worry for most Australians today, have identified a variety of jobs that are at most risk in tough 2009 and those in “safe haven”, as they call it, when the recession hits the nation in one way or another.
Sectors at risk
Apart from mining jobs, which are already being scaled down due to reduced exports of iron ore and energy resources, the first to be affected in the other categories is the banking sector.
This is understandable because of the financial crisis, which has caused the major Australian banks to lose billions of dollars – although their losses are not as much as those in the United States, the United Kingdom and Europe.
Banks here are restructuring their entire organisations and networks and are retrenching workers to cut costs.
Next will be the car industry. Fewer people are now buying new cars, putting car salesmen at risk of losing their jobs.
At risk also are workers in the tyre manufacturing sector, which rely heavily on the local car industry that’s now struggling to maintain its market share against imported brands.
Since petrol prices at the browsers have not come down to the level before the escalation early last year, coupled with the downturn in the economy, motorists are reducing their outings to save money. Workers at petrol browsers and truck drivers will be affected.
Despite the removal of fuel surcharge by airlines, the number of people travelling overseas or interstate has reduced considerably, and the airline industry and its related tourism industry will face a difficult year and shed jobs.
Real estate agents are also worried as fewer people can afford to buy homes and the number of properties under repossession is increasing in all Australian capital cities.
No estimated figures of these specific job losses or of those at great risk this year are available. However, the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics figures for December showed that 44,000 workers were sacked last month as the global recession began to grip the Australian economy. Economists believe that the figures were collected in early December and do not reflect the full extent of lay-offs in the mining sector announced recently.
The figures show that while Australia has yet to experience the substantial rise in unemployment seen in other developed countries, the small rise in jobless rate to 4.5% is worrying government and union officials.
Australian Congress of Trade Unions secretary Jeff Lawrence says the sacking of 14,000 workers worldwide by Rio Tinto, Australia’s big iron producer, shows the worst could be on the way.
The latest statistics also show that job advertisements plunged by 52% last year, with online job advertisements at their lowest ever.
The sharp fall, according to ANZ Bank monthly report, was the weakest annual rate of growth since the bank began its survey of job ads in 1975, and was worse than the drop during the 1982 and 1991 recessions.
This provides further evidence that demand for workforce across the Australian economy is now at recession levels. The Australian economy is forecast to record zero growth this year from an estimated 1.9% last year.
But the economy is expected to rebound to 1% growth next year, according to the Dun & Bradstreet’s Economic and Risk Outlook report released last week.
Exporters hit
D&B chief executive Christine Christian said the slowdown in emerging markets would be felt most among Australia’s exporters, which send about 40% of their goods to the Asia-Pacific region.
“Demand from Asia is critical to Australia’s economic prosperity,” she added. “However, with this demand expected to decrease markedly and default risks likely to rise, Australia’s exporters will be hit hard in 2009.”
The report pointed out that, among other factors, loss of trade partners, slowing productivity gains and a worsening business climate could lower the long-term growth potential of emerging markets.
While the report also predicts that world economic growth would fall to 1% in 2009 – the lowest level in more than 20 years – amid deteriorating trade conditions and decreasing demand, the IBIS World study released last week says traffic from key markets such as China, Japan, the US and most of Europe will fall dramatically.
“While the vulnerabilities vary across the globe, no region will escape the fallout completely,” the study adds.
Most surprisingly, however, the consensus in most reports is that the top 10 “safe haven” jobs include those in the biotechnology and online information services sectors.
Other categories are jobs in childcare, community health care and nursing homes, where the number of over-70s will grow and will keep radiographers and other workers in diagnostic imaging busy as more tests are needed for their health.
Online shopping has shown strong growth among the 25- to 44-year-olds and will create employment opportunities in the sector for technology developers, technical support and supply chain staff and marketing personnel.
With consumers tightening their belts, women especially will buy alternatives to their more expensive fashion items as long as they deliver “the feel good factor”.
This means that women will reduce their spending on clothes, shoes and handbags in favour of lipsticks, skin creams, perfumes and other beauty products.
Researchers and labour market analysts examining this issue, which is the biggest worry for most Australians today, have identified a variety of jobs that are at most risk in tough 2009 and those in “safe haven”, as they call it, when the recession hits the nation in one way or another.
Sectors at risk
Apart from mining jobs, which are already being scaled down due to reduced exports of iron ore and energy resources, the first to be affected in the other categories is the banking sector.
This is understandable because of the financial crisis, which has caused the major Australian banks to lose billions of dollars – although their losses are not as much as those in the United States, the United Kingdom and Europe.
Banks here are restructuring their entire organisations and networks and are retrenching workers to cut costs.
Next will be the car industry. Fewer people are now buying new cars, putting car salesmen at risk of losing their jobs.
At risk also are workers in the tyre manufacturing sector, which rely heavily on the local car industry that’s now struggling to maintain its market share against imported brands.
Since petrol prices at the browsers have not come down to the level before the escalation early last year, coupled with the downturn in the economy, motorists are reducing their outings to save money. Workers at petrol browsers and truck drivers will be affected.
Despite the removal of fuel surcharge by airlines, the number of people travelling overseas or interstate has reduced considerably, and the airline industry and its related tourism industry will face a difficult year and shed jobs.
Real estate agents are also worried as fewer people can afford to buy homes and the number of properties under repossession is increasing in all Australian capital cities.
No estimated figures of these specific job losses or of those at great risk this year are available. However, the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics figures for December showed that 44,000 workers were sacked last month as the global recession began to grip the Australian economy. Economists believe that the figures were collected in early December and do not reflect the full extent of lay-offs in the mining sector announced recently.
The figures show that while Australia has yet to experience the substantial rise in unemployment seen in other developed countries, the small rise in jobless rate to 4.5% is worrying government and union officials.
Australian Congress of Trade Unions secretary Jeff Lawrence says the sacking of 14,000 workers worldwide by Rio Tinto, Australia’s big iron producer, shows the worst could be on the way.
The latest statistics also show that job advertisements plunged by 52% last year, with online job advertisements at their lowest ever.
The sharp fall, according to ANZ Bank monthly report, was the weakest annual rate of growth since the bank began its survey of job ads in 1975, and was worse than the drop during the 1982 and 1991 recessions.
This provides further evidence that demand for workforce across the Australian economy is now at recession levels. The Australian economy is forecast to record zero growth this year from an estimated 1.9% last year.
But the economy is expected to rebound to 1% growth next year, according to the Dun & Bradstreet’s Economic and Risk Outlook report released last week.
Exporters hit
D&B chief executive Christine Christian said the slowdown in emerging markets would be felt most among Australia’s exporters, which send about 40% of their goods to the Asia-Pacific region.
“Demand from Asia is critical to Australia’s economic prosperity,” she added. “However, with this demand expected to decrease markedly and default risks likely to rise, Australia’s exporters will be hit hard in 2009.”
The report pointed out that, among other factors, loss of trade partners, slowing productivity gains and a worsening business climate could lower the long-term growth potential of emerging markets.
While the report also predicts that world economic growth would fall to 1% in 2009 – the lowest level in more than 20 years – amid deteriorating trade conditions and decreasing demand, the IBIS World study released last week says traffic from key markets such as China, Japan, the US and most of Europe will fall dramatically.
“While the vulnerabilities vary across the globe, no region will escape the fallout completely,” the study adds.
Most surprisingly, however, the consensus in most reports is that the top 10 “safe haven” jobs include those in the biotechnology and online information services sectors.
Other categories are jobs in childcare, community health care and nursing homes, where the number of over-70s will grow and will keep radiographers and other workers in diagnostic imaging busy as more tests are needed for their health.
Online shopping has shown strong growth among the 25- to 44-year-olds and will create employment opportunities in the sector for technology developers, technical support and supply chain staff and marketing personnel.
With consumers tightening their belts, women especially will buy alternatives to their more expensive fashion items as long as they deliver “the feel good factor”.
This means that women will reduce their spending on clothes, shoes and handbags in favour of lipsticks, skin creams, perfumes and other beauty products.
MOHD ADHA MOHD ZAIN (ADHA ZAIN)
Blogger Informasi
